Market sentiment towards Thursday’s hard fork has shifted in favor of Bitcoin ABC and the early morning gains in Bitcoin Cash certainly reflect a sense of calm, though it’s too early to be counting one’s chickens just yet.
Looking across at the respective futures prices for Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin SV, we’ve seen a pullback in Bitcoin SV, which has been in reverse through the early hours of this morning, falling from an all-time high $209.19 to $175.50 at the time of writing, an 18.3% fall this morning, which is quite a significant statement.
For Bitcoin ABC, it’s a somewhat different story, but nonetheless continuing to reflect a shift in favor of the Bitcoin ABC team ahead of the fork, with the futures price standing at 0.6767694 BCH at the time of writing, an upward trend having kicked in through the early hours of this morning, with Bitcoin ABC rising from 0.59206 BCH to a morning high 0.68889 BCH before easing back.
If it was down to the futures price alone, the forward guidance would be a Bitcoin ABC victory, but it’s the hash rate and not the futures price that wins the war.
On the hash rate side of the equation, the war has been heating up. While CoinGeek is reported to have 36.8% of the Bitcoin Cash network’s hashrate, Bitmain, which backs the Bitcoin ABC camp, is one of the largest holders of Bitcoin Cash. Calling on the Chinese mining farm community, Bitmain has asked for the deployment of almost 100,000 Antminer S9 miners ahead of the hard fork. A deployment of this magnitude would certainly shift the balance, though it remains to be seen whether the Bitmain team was able to muster up enough support to take it on the day.