OddsEngine

OddsEngine is a forecasting engine for daily high temperature markets on Polymarket. Every day, Polymarket lists markets on the highest temperature in around 50 cities worldwide, each split into temperature brackets that settle on the reading of an official weather station, usually at an airport. OddsEngine pulls ensemble forecasts from several global weather models for the exact settlement station, corrects them with each station’s measured history, turns them into a probability for every bracket and compares those probabilities with market prices. When the engine’s estimate differs clearly from the market, it publishes a call: three adjacent brackets, the price and a suggested split for a given stake. Every call is published before the station reports and is scored publicly afterwards. $ODDS is the access token for the engine’s live calls and tools.